A stochastic modeling of recurrent measles epidemic

Stochastic Epidemic Modeling

We review the topic of stochastic epidemic modeling with emphasis on compartmental stochastic models. A main theme is the usefulness of the correspondence between these and their large population deterministic limits, which describe dynamical systems. The dynamics of an ODE system informs us of the deterministic skeleton upon which the behavior of corresponding stochastic systems are built. In ...

A measles epidemic in a circumscribed community.

A measles outbreak of 151 cases in a circumscribed rural community is documented. Attention is drawn to accuracy of vaccination documentation and the factors influencing uptake. The efficacy of the vaccine in the population of school children is estimated (both within the community at large and within the home of an affected person). A failure rate of 5-6 per cent was found.

GEMFsim: A stochastic simulator for the generalized epidemic modeling framework

The recently proposed generalized epidemic modeling framework (GEMF) [1] lays the groundwork for systematically constructing a broad spectrum of stochastic spreading processes over complex networks. This article builds an algorithm for exact, continuous-time numerical simulation of GEMF-based processes. Moreover the implementation of this algorithm, GEMFsim, is available in popular scientific p...

A measles epidemic controlled by immunisation.

AIM In 1997, an immunisation campaign, using measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, was planned for children aged 2-10 years to prevent a measles epidemic predicted by mathematical modelling. The epidemic started before the campaign and is described here. METHOD Measles hospitalisation, notification and laboratory data were combined. RESULTS The epidemic started in April 1997 and was largely over b...

Epidemic measles in a divided city.